Complicated process ahead

Experts say that even if the exit polling is accurate, it could be weeks until we know the shape of Poland’s next government.

More readers weigh in

Paulina, a reader in Bern, writes in that she waited four hours to vote today in Poland’s election.

Ola from Liverpool says: “We waited 45 minutes to vote in Liverpool today – it was chilly but worth it! The atmosphere was great. We will be very happy if exit poll results are confirmed and opposition parties can form a coalition government.”

Michal, a reader from London, sends this photo and writes: “Long queues but super happy.”

The Law and Justice government’s European critics are celebrating the results of an early exit poll. If Poland’s opposition does form a government, they say, Hungary’s government would become more isolated on the European stage.

Reader weighs in

Poles living abroad experienced very long lines as they voted earlier today.

A reader in London writes that they waited with their Polish partner for about an hour and a half “with lines of hundreds of people stretching down the road”.

PiS has most votes, but opposition could have route to government

Shaun Walker

An exit poll in Poland’s parliamentary election suggested the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party had won the most votes but, if it turns out to be accurate, appeared to show a possible route to government for a combined opposition coalition led by former prime minister and European Council president Donald Tusk.

However, an exit poll in Slovakia’s election earlier this month appeared to show a victory for a progressive coalition, only for the actual results to be strikingly different. It will be later in the night on Sunday, and perhaps well into Monday when the final results become available.

The exit poll put PiS on 36.8% and Tusk’s Civic Coalition on 31.6%. However, two groups that could form a coalition with Tusk also did well, with 13% for the centre-right Third Way and 8.6% for the leftwing Lewica.

Such a result would mean that the three combined parties would probably have the majority of mandates in Poland’s 460-seat parliament. In a further piece of potential good news for Poland’s progressives, the exit poll put Confederation, a far-right coalition tipped to get about 9% of the vote, on 6.2%, lower than pre-election polls had estimated their support to be.

‘We don’t know’ if PiS has path to government, Kaczyński says

Shaun Walker

Jarosław Kaczyński, the PiS chair, said his party’s result was a big success but admitted “we don’t know” whether the party had a path to government. “Days of fight and tension await us,” he told supporters just after the exit poll was released. If PiS is indeed the biggest party, it has the right to have the first attempt at forming a coalition.

“Whether we are in power or in the opposition, we will continue implementing our project and will not allow Poland to be betrayed,” he said.

It’s a bad night for Poland’s far-right Konfederacja, which according to the exit poll got merely 6.2%.

Sławomir Mentzen, one of its leaders, told supporters this evening that he will think about what conclusions to draw from this, Gazeta Wyborcza reports.

Photo from this evening as opposition supporters celebrate exit poll data.

Opposition’s Donald Tusk declares victory

Shaun Walker

At the Civic Coalition headquarters at Warsaw’s Ethnographical Museum, Donald Tusk appeared on stage just minutes after voting had finished to declare victory.

“It’s the end of the evil times, it’s the end of the PiS rule, we made it,” he said, to cheers from assembled supporters.

“We won democracy, we won freedom, we won our free beloved Poland … This day will be remembered in history as a bright day, the rebirth of Poland,” he said.

The exit poll indeed seems to show a route for the joint opposition to form a coalition and no route for PiS, but exit polls can be wrong, as the vote in Slovakia earlier this month showed.

Polls have closed in Poland.

An exit poll by Ipsos for TVN24.pl shows:

Law and Justice (PiS): 36.8%

Civic Coalition (KO): 31.6%

Third Way: 13%

The Left (Lewica): 8.6%

Konfederacja: 6.2%

According to the exit poll, Law and Justice would take 200 seats, Civic Coalition 163 seats, Third Way 55 seats and The Left 30 seats, meaning that an opposition government coalition could be possible.